Sunday the presidential election became a tighter battle than during a direct popular election ever before. Alexander Stubb (cook) won Pekka Haaviston (green) in the end with only 98,663 votes.
Haavisto made a hard run in the final meters of the campaign.
It is clearly visible from the materials that the Finnish Election Data Service has compiled for HS.
Haavisto’s support on election day compared to his support during early voting increased in all regions.
Election data service has divided the regions according to both the income level of the population living in them and the type of region.
In the regions divided by income level, Haavisto won Stubb’s election day votes in all but the highest income regions, even though Stubb had been more popular in all of them in advance votes. Haavisto’s support also increased significantly in the areas with the highest incomes: while his support in these areas had been 45.2 percent in the preliminary votes, he received 49.4 percent of the votes on election day.
When looking at regional types, Stubb won in rural areas, outer framework areas and inner framework areas, even though Haavisto’s support increased considerably in the votes on election day.
Haavisto, on the other hand, won in local centers, suburbs or suburban areas and core areas of large cities. In these areas as well, his support increased on election day compared to preliminary votes.
Political University researcher in history Jenni Karimäki estimates that there are several reasons for Haavisto’s greater support on election day.
One of them is that, with the exception of the last election, the finals in presidential elections have been tight in the past. Some people jump on the “winner’s bandwagon”, i.e. start supporting the more popular candidate, while some want to support the underdog.
In addition, Haavisto generally has greater support in areas where more votes are cast on election day. Haavisto got more votes than Stubb in local centers, suburbs and core areas of large cities, where advance voting is less than in rural areas.
Haavisto also improved especially in the last week of the campaign in the way he challenged Stubb, Karimäki estimated.
“He was able to apply for a resignation more clearly, and that also had an effect.”