Stubb for president | Researchers: voting activity could decide Haavisto’s fate

Specialist investigator Kimmo Elo The Center for Parliamentary Research tells STT that the presidential race was tighter than the polls published before the election showed.

“Yes, this made the race possible.”

When 100 percent of the votes had been counted, there was a coalition candidate by Alexander Stubb vote share 51.6 percent. Candidate of the Association of Voters, supported by the Greens Pekka Haavisto again received a 48.4 percent vote share.

“If you look at it from a researcher’s point of view, yes, this in part confirms that society has moved more to the right in its values,” said Elo.

Election campaigning in general took place very strongly in the context of the war of aggression started by NATO and Russia, Elo said.

“Stubb did speak in the researcher’s ear perhaps more of the kind of language that voters seem to expect at the moment. That is, quite determined security policy and the language of military security. Of course, Haavisto also talked about that, but also more broadly,” he said.

Helsinki University researcher at the university Jenni Karimäki also says that the result of the election can be thought to reflect the right-left division, even though economic policy issues were not directly discussed in the elections.

Although it is a personal election and the candidates were quite similar in many issues related to foreign and security policy, the difference between the candidates could be made through their own political reference group, he says.

“When this once again became a struggle between the center-right and the center-left, which it has been in the second round of the direct referendum, this perhaps shows the general electorate siding more with Stubb.”

In the last ones however, no specific big theme came up in the election debates, which would have clearly turned the voters behind one of the candidates, Elo estimates.

“Of course, the discussion about nuclear weapons, for example, could have influenced voters who emphasize this issue,” he said.

According to Elo, the election campaign remained quite civil until the end.

“It was very nice, but it also meant that we didn’t want to take terribly big risks. For example, you didn’t go to apply specifically Olli Rehnin (association of voters and central) or Jussi Halla-ahon (ps) votes, although their voters nevertheless played the role of kingmaker.”

Homeland the turnout was 70.7, i.e. it fell short of the first round, as expected.

“The fact that the voting percentage remains so low certainly has its own meaning at this point. More will be revealed in more detailed analyses, but apparently many of the voters of Basic Finns and Rehn have stayed at home. Especially in Eastern and Northern Finland, the turnout seems to have dropped quite a lot,” says Elo.

According to Elo, it seems that the people who went to the ballot box of basic Finns have grouped more behind Stubb.

Karimäki also estimated that for Haavisto, where the voting activity took place was of great importance.

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