Russia would be able to restore its combat power to the pre-war level within three to five years after the end of the fighting in Ukraine, estimates the Norwegian intelligence service in a recent in its Focus 2024 report.
So the Russian armed forces could recover from the war faster than previously estimated – or as the Norwegian newspaper said Verdens Gang writes: NATO countries have much less time than estimated to prepare to respond to the revival of the Russian military apparatus.
Published a year ago in its previous risk report the intelligence service estimates that rebuilding the Russian armed forces after the war would take five to ten years.
The updated estimate is explained by the rapid growth of the defense industry.
Russia will increase its defense spending by a historic amount in 2024.
According to the report, Russia has planned to spend 118.5 billion US dollars, or about 110 billion euros, on defense spending this year. The defense budget will thus increase by 61 percent from last year, and defense spending will account for almost 30 percent of the state’s total budget.
According to the report, Russia has moved to a war economy and is now pouring money into the defense industry.
Russia produces more ammunition, combat vehicles, airplanes and missiles than a year ago.
China, Belarus, Iran and North Korea provide considerable military support to Russia.
Defense industry growth affects the course of the war in Ukraine.
Russia is now able to produce enough ammunition and other supplies to ensure the continuation of the war throughout 2024.
In the report of the Norwegian intelligence service, everything points to the fact that the war will continue throughout the year that has begun. The possibility of real negotiations is weak.
According to the report, Russia is gaining the military upper hand as the third year of the war begins.
The Kremlin is expected to step up its military operations in Ukraine in the coming months. According to the report, Russia is able to send three times more recruits to the front than Ukraine.
By early 2024, Ukraine has failed to maintain its advantage in the war and has failed to recapture significant territory.
According to the report, a large part of the equipment given to Ukraine by Western countries has been lost or consumed in the fighting.
Ukrainian the outcome of the war is the head of Norway’s intelligence service By Nils Andreas Stensønes according to decisive.
Stensønes does not believe that Russia is expanding the conflict in the short term, but if Russia wins in Ukraine, the situation may change.
“A Russia that has got its economy under control, its arms industry up and running and is successful militarily is likely to believe more in the use of military force than a Russia that was not successful in war,” Stensønes told Norway’s of the public broadcasting company NRK by.
On Monday, the Norwegian authorities did not warn the people about the possibility of war, unlike in Sweden the minister did a few weeks earlier. The security situation around Norway was still said to have become more dangerous than before.