So far the Democrats have always refused to discuss a plan B for the next US elections, but the devastating report by special prosecutor Robert Hur, which describes Joe Biden as “an elderly man with memory problems” and “diminished faculties”, forces them to take it into consideration. Especially because, politically motivated or not, the description of the Republican prosecutor seems to be shared by 86% of American voters who, according to a recent ABCnews poll, considers Biden “too old” for a second term in the White House.
The fact that the Democrats, increasingly panicking, have convinced themselves of the need to have an emergency plan, does not mean that, due to procedural and political difficulties, it will be easy to simply replace the president, Politico writes today, stating that “The most likely eventuality is that Biden remains on the ballot“.
This does not mean that they cannot evaluate different scenarios in which the party actually manages to nominate a candidate other than Biden at the August convention or even afterwards to compete in the November elections, concludes the site which tells, hypothetically, how these scenarios could play out.
BIDEN DECIDES TO LEAVE AFTER PRIMARY VICTORY
The truth is that any alternative strategy for the 2024 elections can only be realized if Biden voluntarily steps aside or is physically incapacitated. In fact, at the moment, despite the growing anxiety within the Democratic Party, the president is leading the Democratic primaries unopposed, in which no significant candidate has taken to the field to challenge the incumbent president and where it is impossible for him to arrive, by surprise , an alternative since the deadlines for running in the primaries have expired in almost all states.
Barring a sudden physical incapacity, or a highly unlikely delegate riot during the convention, the only possible plan B involves Biden voluntarily resigning. The 81-year-old president is a proud man, with an ego strengthened by the fact that, having entered the Senate young, he was denied the presidency many times before he finally managed to win it: convince him that he is in an untenable position and that he must step aside It therefore appears to be a very difficult undertaking.
According to Politico, however, there is a path that would allow the president to resign with dignity and on his own terms, allowing, first of all, that he concludes, on June 4, the path of the primaries as the undisputed winner of the over 1900 delegates. At this point he should be the one not to accept the nomination, entrusting the delegates to another candidate, perhaps saying that he feels ready for a second mandate while accepting the concerns of the voters, claiming in any case to leave an economy on the right track and to have defeated Donald Trump once.
BATTLE AT THE CONVENTION
Thus a period would open, between June and the August 19 convention in Chicago, where a fight would break outunprecedented in decades of American political history, among Democratic representatives to obtain the candidacy for the White House in this unusual way. Biden would remain in the role of kingmaker, as he would still be in control of the delegates who – although not legally obliged to support the president or anyone supported by him – will be political officials chosen by the Biden campaign and therefore loyal to the president.
The thorniest question would be – Politico again hypothesizes in this scenario – that of Kamala Harris, the vice president who has an even lower popularity rating than Biden and who showed poor campaigning ability during the 2020 primaries. But the exclusion of the Democrat, whose mother is Indian and whose father is African-American, could create problems with the African-American vote.
The other possible alternative candidates are all exponents who, while not hiding personal aspirations, have always shown themselves loyal towards Biden, such as the governors of California and Illinois, Gavin Newsom and JB Pritzker, committed to supporting and supporting the president’s campaign . Another very likely name would be that of Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, a great ally of Biden, so much so as to be vice president of his campaign, and an enemy of Trump, who gained great popularity during the clash with the far right of the state during the pandemic.
Politico does not take into consideration the rumor, which has been circulating for weeks among far-right exponents and conservative sites, of a Barack Obama’s plan to replace Biden with Michelle Obama, the former first lady who has never made a secret – as many have remembered in recent days – that she has no intention of engaging in politics. What is certain is that in this scenario a convention full of twists and turns would take place in Chicago, Politico continues, suggesting that the so-called “superdelegates”, the officials and former party leaders whose vote is added to that of the elected delegates whose role, as the voice of the elite, had been called into question after the recent conventions.
BIDEN RENOUNCES AFTER THE CONVENTION
Politico also analyzes another, much more chaotic, scenario. The one where Biden does not take a step back, he is nominated as a candidate at the convention but then for some reason he is unable to participate in the elections. What would happen? The rules of the convention provide that in the event of “the death, resignation or incapacity” of the candidate, the president of the party must “communicate it to the Democratic leadership of Congress, the Association of Democratic Governors and the members of the Democratic National Committee” who will have to choose a new candidate.
They could choose Harris – who in the meantime would have been confirmed as the candidate for vice president – and therefore they would then have to designate a new veep. Such a delayed exit from the scene by Biden would be not only a political but also a logistical nightmare for the states, some of which begin to send the ballots for the military to vote abroad a few weeks after the convention, and shortly afterwards they also start the vote by mail or in advance for American voters. Minnesota and South Dakota, for example, begin early voting on September 20.